I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend and is ready to start another great day on the slopes across Hokkaido. Our next snowstorm is slowly edging its merry way towards Hokkaido, apparently unaware that it is not doing what was previously expected. That being said there is a shift in the forecast for both timing and snow totals. The onset of snow will likely be delayed by 4-6hrs with snow showers starting to impact Niseko, Kiroro, and Rusutsu in the mid to late afternoon. I am personally leaning towards the heaviest snow totals of these three occurring around Rusutsu, but a small shift in storm track or the onset of ocean effect/enhanced snow could greatly increase snow totals especially in Kiroro

I mentioned yesterday a sharp gradient in snow totals for those up in Furano and this sadly appears to be only getting worse with the gradient shifting south. As a result those in Furano and North/NW will likely see very little snow from this system. However, as the winds shift tomorrow the potential for ocean effect snow will develop. To the South and SE of Furano the likelihood of snow and snow totals increase with locations such as Tomamu possibly receiving as much as 15 to 25cm.

Below is a graphic from our in-house model here at Japanskitours.com displaying the modeled new snow accumulation (cm) using a snow ratio equation that I consider conservative. This is not a forecast but I wanted to show you how tight the gradient is between moderate/heavy accumulations and very little at all.

 Paul

Japanskitours.com In-House Model

24hr New Snow Accumulation (cm) February 20th

Hi all,

I wanted to give you all a little look at our next storm which while a quick hitter will bring some moderate snow to Hokkaido tomorrow. Here is a brief weather synopsis:

The strong winds yesterday were brought on by a robust surface low moving through the region currently it is located to the NE of Hokkaido moving off across southern parts of Kamchatka Peninsula. However, morning observations are showing the system is still responsible for NW winds of moderate strength to the major ski resorts. As the system continues on its merry way towards Alaska and the Polar Regions the winds will decrease and turn to the West/WSW this evening. The decrease in wind speeds will cut off on the ocean effect snow across Hokkaido that is currently ongoing in several bands, specifically in the Sapporo and Furano regions. These is no reason to fear though as the next system is prone to start impacting Hokkaido starting tomorrow morning.

The system will likely be a quick hitter with the majority of snow ending in the overnight period of February 20/21, there will still be ocean effect snow bands across the western portions of Hokkaido which will lead to further accumulations. Total accumulations will be quite decent for the short lived event with the highest amounts of 10 to 30cm (more at higher elevations) falling in the Niseko, Kiroro, Rusutsu triangle. Lower amounts of 10 to 20cm will fall further north around Furano, however I do expect there to be a sharp gradient in the Furano region with locations north of this cutoff only receiving 2 to 5cm from the main system.

Paul

Hi all, 

Our next snowstorm is currently setting up for Hokkaido with the heaviest snowfall expected late this evening, overnight, and tomorrow. Light to moderate totals of Dry or Dry/Heavy quality snow is expected; Kiroro will likely be the big winner with totals of 15 to 30 likely and the potential existing for isolated amounts in excess of 40cm by Sunday night. These locations will be the highest elevations on north facing slopes along a line from Kiroro Ski Resort westward towards the city of Yoichi and the prominent peak, Yobetsu-dake.

If you are reading from down south, say Tokyo, it is time to hit the road and head out to Hakuba! Snow has been falling in the mountains for several days, but this evening and tomorrow appears to not only be the heaviest accumulations, but also the most likely to be of a drier quality. Accumulations will likely amount to a whopping 30 to 70cm over the next 24 to 36hrs! I hope everyone is enjoying the fresh powder and stay tuned for the long range forecast!