The effects of El Niño on the Central Hokkaido (incl Furano) region
With a stunning 83% chance of an above-average
season, Central Hokkaido wins the El Niño wars!
With a stunning 83% chance of outperforming an average year, the Central Hokkaio region (which encompasses such areas as Kamui Ski Links and Furano) comes in first place for a very likely big snow dump this winter!
The conclusion:
Between 1954 and 2014, JMA recorded an average annual snowfall in the Asahikawa region of 617cm. During the 12 El Niño cycles listed below, only 2 years had snow fall below the average and 5 years had snow fall above the average, indicating that an El Niño cycle in the Asahikawa region is historically very likely to produce above-average snowfall conditions!
The conclusion:
Between 1954 and 2014, JMA recorded an average annual snowfall in the Asahikawa region of 617cm. During the 12 El Niño cycles listed below, only 2 years had snow fall below the average and 5 years had snow fall above the average, indicating that an El Niño cycle in the Asahikawa region is historically very likely to produce above-average snowfall conditions!
Chart Analysis
The blue line in the chart below denotes how much snow fall was recorded by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for the time span of 1953 to 2014 (years located on the X-axis). The intersecting orange bars indicate El Niño years recorded by JMA for Japan.
While some El Niño years such as 1964, 1983, and 2003 show a decline in snow fall during El Niño period, other years such as 1970, 1973, 1988 and 2010 show that El Niño years significantly outperformed the average.
How does Central Hokkaido compare to other regions in Japan?
Other mumbo-jumbo
The first thing you should note about this chart is that the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) doesn't have a weather station closer to Furano than Asahikawa (from what this investigator could figure out). While Asahiwaka is relatively close, it does get significantly less snow than Furano. However, given that they're in the same region and prone to the same general weather influences, the data for Asahikawa should reflect the overall conditions and trends of Furano and other central Hokkaido ski resorts.
