What effect will El Niño have on the ski season in Japan?
Whelp, you've asked the magic question everyone's trying to find out! When the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) declares an El Niño cycle, what does this mean for your ski trip? We've gotten this question a lot--so much that we've decided to dedicate an entire page to figuring it out.
To get an idea of what this means for Japan Powder (aka Japow), we've taken a look at over 50 years of data provided by the JMA and cross-referenced it by El Niño cycles. The results are variable and sometimes surprising, causing laughter, snow-lust and sometimes tears.
To get an idea of what this means for Japan Powder (aka Japow), we've taken a look at over 50 years of data provided by the JMA and cross-referenced it by El Niño cycles. The results are variable and sometimes surprising, causing laughter, snow-lust and sometimes tears.
Central Hokkaido wins the El Niño wars!
With a stunning 83% likelihood of above-average snowfall during El Niño cycles, central Hokkaido is definitely the place to be for the 15/16 season!
Check out the data, the numbers and the conclusions for each ski region below!
With a stunning 83% chance of an above-average season, the Furano region is most likely to have an above average season during an El Niño cycle.
With a stunning 83% chance of outperforming an average year, the Central Hokkaio region (which encompasses such areas as Kamui Ski Links and Furano) comes in first place for a very likely big snow dump this winter! Hooray for them!
The conclusion:
Between 1954 and 2014, JMA recorded an average annual snowfall in the Asahikawa region of 617cm. During the 12 El Niño cycles listed below, only 2 years had snow fall below the average and 5 years had snow fall above the average, indicating that an El Niño cycle in the Asahikawa region is historically very likely to produce above-average snow fall conditions.
See the full analysis and chart here.
With a stunning 83% chance of outperforming an average year, the Central Hokkaio region (which encompasses such areas as Kamui Ski Links and Furano) comes in first place for a very likely big snow dump this winter! Hooray for them!
The conclusion:
Between 1954 and 2014, JMA recorded an average annual snowfall in the Asahikawa region of 617cm. During the 12 El Niño cycles listed below, only 2 years had snow fall below the average and 5 years had snow fall above the average, indicating that an El Niño cycle in the Asahikawa region is historically very likely to produce above-average snow fall conditions.
See the full analysis and chart here.
58% of the time, Niseko has out-performed it's average snowfall during El Niño cycles
Conclusion:
Between 1954 and 2014, JMA recorded an average annual snowfall in the Niseko region of 1,207cm. During the 12 El Niño cycles listed below, 5 years had snow fall below the average and 7 years had snow fall above the average, indicating that an El Niño cycle in Niseko is historically likely to produce above-average snow fall conditions.
See the full analysis and chart here.
Conclusion:
Between 1954 and 2014, JMA recorded an average annual snowfall in the Niseko region of 1,207cm. During the 12 El Niño cycles listed below, 5 years had snow fall below the average and 7 years had snow fall above the average, indicating that an El Niño cycle in Niseko is historically likely to produce above-average snow fall conditions.
See the full analysis and chart here.
83% of the time, Hakuba has below-average snowfall during El Niño cycles :(
Conclusion:
Between 1954 and 2014, JMA recorded an average annual snowfall in the Nagano region of 173cm. During the 12 El Niño cycles listed below, 7 years had snow fall below the average and 5 years had snow fall above the average, indicating that an El Niño cycle in the Nagano region is historically likely to produce below-average snow fall conditions.
See the full analysis and chart here.
Conclusion:
Between 1954 and 2014, JMA recorded an average annual snowfall in the Nagano region of 173cm. During the 12 El Niño cycles listed below, 7 years had snow fall below the average and 5 years had snow fall above the average, indicating that an El Niño cycle in the Nagano region is historically likely to produce below-average snow fall conditions.
See the full analysis and chart here.
Historically the Myoko region, El Niño brings a 50/50 chance of a big dump
Conclusion:
Between 1954 and 2014, JMA recorded an average annual snowfall in the Niigata region of 169cm. During the 12 El Niño cycles listed below, 6 years had snow fall below the average and 6 years had snow fall above the average, indicating that an El Niño cycle in the Niigata region is historically a wash. It's a 50/50 bet according to history! But when you win in Niigata, you really win big according to that huge spike in 1983!
See the full analysis and chart here.
Conclusion:
Between 1954 and 2014, JMA recorded an average annual snowfall in the Niigata region of 169cm. During the 12 El Niño cycles listed below, 6 years had snow fall below the average and 6 years had snow fall above the average, indicating that an El Niño cycle in the Niigata region is historically a wash. It's a 50/50 bet according to history! But when you win in Niigata, you really win big according to that huge spike in 1983!
See the full analysis and chart here.
A few things to remember when looking at this data:
- All data is provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and spans from 1953 to 2014
- The snow fall recorded by JMA is not located at the ski resorts themselves, but at the nearest weather station which may be located at lower, less prone-to-precipitation areas. The exact location of the weather station is noted on each chart. Despite not being located at the exact ski resort, the nearby weather stations should give a good indication of general weather conditions in the nearby area.
- The snow fall data doesn't reflect cumulative snowfall data, but just the amount that fell from the sky (doesn't take into account loading/scouring, melting, settling, drifting, etc).
