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January 31st Forecast Graphic

1/31/2017

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January 30th Forecast Graphic

1/30/2017

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January 29th Forecast Graphic and short term snowfall discussion

1/29/2017

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The forecast graphic shows the forecast for the 29th however it is a bit misleading as additional snow will fall overnight and tomorrow. The cause is a weak low pressure system moving northward allowing for the ocean enhanced snow to kick into gear resulting in snow showers increasing in coverage and intensity across not only Hokkaido but also Hakuba.

By morning the highest elevations of Hakuba can expect anywhere from 10 to 20cm of wet snow (below 1000 snow totals will greatly decrease due to a rain/snow mix). Snow will be drier, but lighter in Hokkaido with totals by morning of 5-10cm in Rusutsu, 4 to 9 in Niseko, 9 to 13 in Kiroro, and 4 to 12 in Furano with the highest amounts above 650m. More snow will fall throughout the day across Hokkaido with totals by evening on the 30th of:

Niseko: 15 to 25cm (Quality: Dry)
Kiroro: 15 to 30cm (Quality: Dry)
Rusutsu: 10 to 20cm (Quality:  Dry)
Furano Region: 15 to 25cm (Quality: Dry)

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January 28th Forecast Graphic

1/28/2017

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January 27th Forecast Graphic: Messy Day Across Hokkaido

1/27/2017

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Hi everyone,

Today is looking quite messy across Hokkaido with a rain snow mix below 550 to 700m (depending on location) before a complete shift to snow the afternoon/evening. It was quite a difficult forecast especially in the Furano region where there are a variety of elevations for base and top. The snow that does fall will be quite wet, especially across the lower elevations. The highest slopes of Furano, Niseko, and Kiroro could really pick up some nice snowfall, with the driest quality snow falling later tonight. Tomorrow might be messy with the initial wet layer increasing the avalanche risk.

​Paul

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January 26th Forecast Graphic

1/26/2017

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January 25th Forecast Graphic

1/25/2017

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January 24th Forecast Graphic

1/24/2017

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January 23rd Forecast Graphic

1/23/2017

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January 22nd Forecast Graphic, Snow Storm forecast, and Long Range Forecast

1/22/2017

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​Taking a look at the storm that dropped and is currently dropping substantial amounts of snow on the mainland mountains, especially those located towards the eastern side such as the Hakuba region, I am feeling confident that resorts across Hokkaido will be receiving new snow and in some areas substantial amounts. As of present there is a low pressure system located SE of Hokkaido off the eastern coast of the northern mainland.  This low pressure will strengthen as it moves slowly NW into the Tsugaru Strait, the body of water separating Honshu and Hokkaido, by this evening. This will push an initial wave of precipitation into the Niseko, Kiroro, and Rusutsu resorts in the late morning/early afternoon and the Furano region in the early afternoon. The initial wave of precipitation will result in the totals I discussed in the January 22nd forecast posted below. However, this is not the end of the storm; the low pressure system associated with the storm will truck off to the northwest towards the Aleutian Islands in Alaska ushering in strong northerly winds across Hokkaido and easterly winds in the Hakuba region. The result is the perfect combination for ocean effect/enhanced snow squalls in both the eastern mainland mountains (Hakuba) and parts of Hokkaido (Kiroro especially).
 
As winds blow across the Sea of Japan to the west of Hakuba they will pick up a substantial amount of moisture which when it encounters the "Japanese Alps", consisting of the Akaishi, Hida, and Kiso mountain ranges, drops snow and often in large amounts and for a prolonged period. This is very likely what we could see this week (FRESH POWDER!!!), with the potential for snow squalls lasting through Wednesday (1/25). So now let’s get to the part we all want to know, snow totals, the biggest issue with this type of system is that the precipitation occurs in bands. Due to the banded nature of the squalls there are wide variations in snowfall. That being said it is quite likely that over the next couple days we will see likely see totals of 30 to 70cm with some areas flirting with +1 meter of snow. Our high resolution model is supporting this and even saying more is possible, the model is hinting at between 35 and 70cm by 2pm tomorrow (1/23), while I think this is excessive for the entire region it is quite possible that areas under persistent bands may see totals of 70cm in 36hrs. Up in Hokkaido totals will be decent across all of the island, however Kiroro will be the big winner with 36hr totals of 35-60cm likely (by 2pm 1/23) and storm totals of 40 to 75. Over the next 36 hours Niseko will receive 20-40cm, Rusutsu 15-20cm, Furano City 20-25cm, Kamui Ski Links 25-35cm, Tomamu Ski 25-35cm, Sahoro 30-40cm, and 35 to 45 on Mt Tokachi. These are fairly conservative numbers and it is possible that higher amounts will occur particularly across the higher elevations so to summarize BE EXCITED!

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    Author


    Paul Carlone, is a meteorologist specializing in the financial, energy, and agricultural sectors.  He has consulted or worked with the commodity, agricultural, aerospace, hydrological, and meteorology communities although he also now specializes in forecasting where the Japow will come rolling in. 

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  • Trips
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