February 20th Forecast Graphic and Snowstorm Update with Model Output Map

I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend and is ready to start another great day on the slopes across Hokkaido. Our next snowstorm is slowly edging its merry way towards Hokkaido, apparently unaware that it is not doing what was previously expected. That being said there is a shift in the forecast for both timing and snow totals. The onset of snow will likely be delayed by 4-6hrs with snow showers starting to impact Niseko, Kiroro, and Rusutsu in the mid to late afternoon. I am personally leaning towards the heaviest snow totals of these three occurring around Rusutsu, but a small shift in storm track or the onset of ocean effect/enhanced snow could greatly increase snow totals especially in Kiroro

I mentioned yesterday a sharp gradient in snow totals for those up in Furano and this sadly appears to be only getting worse with the gradient shifting south. As a result those in Furano and North/NW will likely see very little snow from this system. However, as the winds shift tomorrow the potential for ocean effect snow will develop. To the South and SE of Furano the likelihood of snow and snow totals increase with locations such as Tomamu possibly receiving as much as 15 to 25cm.

Below is a graphic from our in-house model here at Japanskitours.com displaying the modeled new snow accumulation (cm) using a snow ratio equation that I consider conservative. This is not a forecast but I wanted to show you how tight the gradient is between moderate/heavy accumulations and very little at all.

 Paul

Japanskitours.com In-House Model

24hr New Snow Accumulation (cm) February 20th

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