January 12th forecast graphic: Snow and wind

Hi all,

Today looks to have more snow and quite a bit of wind especially at the higher elevations of Hokkaido. The snow is banded in nature, coming in strips off of the ocean to the west, meaning there will be periods where it is snowing and other periods of dry but cloudy. The banded nature also means that the predicted snowfall may end up not occuring. As I look at the current radar there is heavy snow falling in a east to west band off the coast to the north of Otaru. I am going to be optimistic though and predict that the snow bands will develop over the 3 major resort regions.

With respect to the banded nature of the snow be aware that in the heavier snow bands white outs are a possibility and with the new snow please stay aware for avalanches. Additionally, check ahead to ensure the route to your preferred slope is open; on Monday in the United States a large avalanche shut down I-70 in Colorado. The winds and snow rates will slowly decrease in the evening across the island.

Below is the high resolution model output for new snowfall from midnight January 12th to 9pm January 12th. This is only a model output not a forecast. Please see the forecast graphic below the snowfall graphic for a forecast.

The model has a finite spatial resolution (it does not predict for every square inch of Hokkaido). That is where I come into play by taking into account elevation, location, etc to make a forecast.

I do want to draw your attention to the 28cm+ snowfall SE of Kiroro. The higher elevations in the Kiroro could pick up as much as 30cm. Personally I went with a 15-25cm total due to multiple factors. If you are down on the SE tip of Hokkaido near Horoizumi the higher elevations could really be hammered (model output showing 40cm). 

​Paul

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